Ukraine-Zone Nuclear Flashpoint Window — 28 Oct–28 Nov… — Sealed Pre-Window (IA-RU-046)
Sealed 2026-08-26, PENDING — held off the graded record until the window resolves. Between 28 Oct and 28 Nov 2026, a nuclear-level escalation concentrates…
Sealed claim: Between 28 Oct and 28 Nov 2026, a nuclear-level escalation concentrates in the Ukraine theater — attribution held open. Pre-registered vectors: a PROVABLE (independently verifiable) nuclear-capability demonstration (underground sufficient, atmospheric self-defeating); a false-flag radiological/dirty-bomb event (registered for any side); threshold posturing / a declared capability / a long-range missile test reported nuclear-capable / nuclear-capable exercises; and a deterrence exercise (IA-RU-009-type). Assessed ceiling: a demonstrative TEST, not a wartime use. Probability maximum ~13 Nov; a deterrence/response event window opens ~28 Nov. Successor to IA-RU-020.
- Sealed on public record
- 2026-08-26
- Seal artifact
- IA-RU-046
- SHA-256
8e4e1a2e1c5873528b480b234ebc57ca3bf378277fd3a450ee2c40b09c4afa49