A sealed eruption-risk advisory for the Yellowstone supervolcano, dated 26 Mar 2024 (~53-day lead). The flagged eruption did not materialize; USGS held the…
A sealed public advisory, dated 26 March 2024 (~53-day lead), flagged elevated eruption / hydrothermal-explosion risk at the Yellowstone supervolcano peaking on or around 18 May 2024. The flagged eruption DID NOT materialize — USGS held the caldera at NORMAL through the window (62 located quakes in May, max M1.8). The advisory is retained on the public record, UNGRADED: a prevention / risk-class watch on a counterfactual cannot be Brier-scored, and no prevention credit is claimed. Presented as a public SITREP — full honesty on substance, decision-grade form. The window coincided with the strongest geomagnetic storm in ~21 years (NOAA G5, May 2024) and the largest solar flare of the solar cycle; the space-weather/seismic link is presented as an exploratory hypothesis with some peer-reviewed support, not scientific consensus, and not as eruption-validation. Tracked openly with weekly USGS maps; deliberately excludes radar/DEW, doom accounts, and cover-up insinuations. Stakes context: USGS volcanologist Lisa Morgan warns catastrophic hydrothermal explosions 'could very well happen today,' and the hazard figures in great-power strategic discourse.