It's not the vehicle — it's the dayTime is the addressSealed before the window · Bitcoin-anchoredMisses published beside the hits
The Math · Derivation
How every 1-in-N figure is built: outcome-space partition × cascade discount × multiplier ladder. No analyst overlay. Plus the corpus-level LUCK TEST — 92…
The 1-in-N improbability derivation
How JYOTINT computes the odds that a sealed call landed by chance: an outcome-space partition × a cascade exponent × a capped multiplier ladder, published as a repeatable derivation with no analyst-in-the-loop fudge. The logic behind every '1-in-N' figure on the record.
The luck test, corpus-level: under strict clustered scoring, 51 of 68 independent event-groups landed as called; the pre-registered break-even for the record’s claims is ≥65%, with falsification conditions stated before the test; the sittings ledger is 23/23. Full data: /api/v1/luck-test.json — significance with base-rate floors, never a skill trophy; a base-rate baseline still ties the headline Brier by construction.
The headline numbers this math sits under: the aggregate Brier is 0.0958 (launch-only subset 0.036); the could-it-be-luck significance is p≈2.2×10−⁵ (≈ 1-in-44,843) at a coin-flip floor per event; Information Yield runs a median 6.8 bits of against-consensus surprise per call, and the SITA decision-value profile a median of 71. The record sits on the Bitcoin-anchored seal manifest (manifestHash cb41561b3aa2…) — 103 sealed records, of which 92 are closed and graded into the Brier.