LA-012 · GSLV-F16 / NISAR — Slip &…
NISAR's 30 Jul 2025 launch (LA-012): a sealed slip + orbital-deviation call graded PARTIAL — the 40-min slip landed; a 19 Sep on-orbit TLE excursion went…
NISAR / GSLV-F16 — schedule slip and the 19 September 2025 orbital-data discrepancy
LA-012 is the sealed pre-event call — committed publicly on 12 July 2025, about 18 days before T-0 — that the announced 30 July 2025 · 17:00 IST GSLV-F16 launch of NISAR was high-risk. The settled, uncontestable facts on the public record: ISRO moved T-0 from 17:00 to 17:40 IST (a schedule slip confirmed about nine days out, as the advisory warned); the vehicle lifted off structurally successfully at the adjusted time; and insertion came in roughly 10 km off-plan — NASA NISAR program scientist Dr Gerald Bawden publicly noted the orbit was injected low, contradicting an ISRO 'precise insertion' characterization.
The documented public-catalogue discrepancy (19 September 2025) — an open question, not a verdict
This is the part only this record documents in detail. Public orbital-element (TLE) data — recomputed from the U.S. Space Force / NORAD catalogue and surfaced by independent trackers — shows NISAR (NORAD 65053) holding its nominal ~748 × 746 km science orbit through 19 September 2025, then a swing to apogee 1219.55 km / perigee 193.09 km at the 23:51 Z epoch (apogee +471 km and perigee −553 km against the mission's published ±20 km science-orbit tolerance — roughly 25× the stated margin), a ~6-day catalogue blackout, and then an abrupt revert to ~747 km. The break is corroborated across multiple independent catalogues (Satcat / Kayhan Space, N2YO, CelesTrak, KeepTrack, satellitemap), and the GSLV rocket body from the same launch (NORAD 65054) continued to track normally in the expected Sun-synchronous orbit straight through the window — which rules out a launch-wide or catalogue-wide tracking artifact.
The honest-broker reading. NASA's stated status for NISAR is operational, and that is taken at face value: this record does not assert a mission loss and does not claim to have independently confirmed what physically happened on orbit. The TLE excursion is a documented discrepancy in the public catalogue that may have a mundane explanation — a propagation or element-set artifact, or a catalogue error. The catalogue's later reclassification of NISAR from Sun-synchronous to generic LEO is an automated downstream label that follows the anomalous elements, not independent proof the satellite left its orbit. The claim is deliberately narrow and verifiable: the public record carries an unexplained ~6-day round-trip excursion on a flagship mission that the agencies did not publicly report, and that gap is itself the finding. Any independent tracker is invited to confirm or refute it from the same public catalogue (space-track.org, free account); the free Satcat view retains only about six months, which is why these timestamped captures are preserved.
Grade — PARTIAL, published openly. The high-level composite the advisory warned of (schedule slip + structurally successful liftoff + significant on-orbit deviation) landed; three named sub-mechanisms — thermal RUD, SAR-imaging loss, comm failure — were graded NEAR and did not fire at ascent, so LA-012 is graded PARTIAL rather than HIT, and the non-HIT is kept on the record on purpose. Primary source of record: Satcat.com (Kayhan Space) for NORAD 65053, with the agencies' own NISAR documents (NASA and ISRO press kits, the ISRO GSLV-F16 launch brochure, and Dr Bawden's STM-24 briefing) cited for the 747 km science-orbit specification.
Sealed claim: Muhūrtha Risk Advisory Mission: NASA–ISRO SAR (NISAR) Agencies: @nasa @nasajpl @isro Vehicle: GSLV Mk II Pad: Satish Dhawan Space Centre, Sriharikota Published T-0: Wednesday, 30 July 2025 | 17:00 IST I. Astrological Advisory The launch window at 17:00 IST on July 30, 2025, is flagged as highly unfavorable and inauspicious. The following forecast outlines the most likely failure modes. Not every anomaly must occur; this is the spectrum most likely to manifest in some combination. Based on these failure modes, proceeding with the launch is not a risk worth taking with a $1.5 billion investment—indeed, it would be reckless. II. Spectrum of Failure Modes 🗓️ Schedule Slip — Probability: 90% Although we will proceed with the launch countdown this time, a punctual liftoff at 17:00 IST remains highly unlikely. Meteorological factors, vehicle issues, and range constraints are expected to cause holds, delays, scrubs, or rescheduling. Notably, high-altitude winds—jet stream winds at upper atmospheric levels—can generate turbulence that destabilizes the rocket during critical ascent phases. These winds can lead to guidance errors, structural oscillations, or oscillatory stress, which may require reprogramming of guidance systems or cause launch delays. In extreme cases, they could necessitate holding the launch until conditions improve. Ignoring these warnings risks a watery demise or uncontrolled explosion. A similar schedule slip advisory was issued for the launch of the @blueorigin New Shepard NS-24 rocket, owned by @jeffbezos. The launch was first put on hold due to cold launch-site temperatures and subsequently scrubbed due to issues with ground systems. Evidence: https://x.com/vijayjyotishusa/status/1824307635103076432 🔥 Thermal Excursions & Explosion — Probability: 90% Thermal excursions during ascent, MECO, and separation are expected. Although the GSLV's fuels are of exceptional quality—usually an advantage—breaching thermal thresholds can turn this strength into a significant risk. Reaching these critical temperatures could ignite the fuels, leading to thermal runaway, explosive failure, or rapid disassembly. The combination of thermal stress and potential guidance or control system failures greatly increases the likelihood of total failure. A similar thermal excursion warning was issued for the launch of @SpaceX Starship 2 and shared with @elonmusk. Unfortunately, it was not considered, resulting in a catastrophic explosion of the LOX tank. Evidence: https://x.com/vijayjyotishusa/status/1824307998422179901 🚩 Orbit Deviations & Deployment Failures — Probability: 80% Guidance anomalies during separation or burns could cause the satellite to drift from its planned sun-synchronous orbit. Such deviations impair instrument activation and orientation, risking premature reentry or total loss of control. A similar orbital insertion anomaly advisory was issued for the launch of the @nasa @astrobotic Lunar Lander 'Peregrine,' which flew on the @ulalaunch Vulcan rocket. Despite extensive outreach, including to @ulalaunch CEO @torybruno (who is very approachable and I like him!), the advisory was not considered for various technical and business reasons, and the launch proceeded as scheduled. Consequently, the predicted anomalies occurred during orbital insertion, resulting in the complete loss of the lunar lander Peregrine. Evidence: https://x.com/vijayjyotishusa/status/1824307269741449356 🔴 Loss of SAR Imaging — Probability: 90% Severe guidance or orbit errors will compromise the satellite's imaging capabilities, preventing its radar antenna from maintaining proper orientation or stability. As a result, high-resolution imaging of Earth's surface will be impossible, rendering the payload either partially or entirely ineffective, resulting in mission failure. 📡 Communication Failures — Probability: 80% System errors and particularly—software bugs—may cause loss of contact with ground stations, preventing timely guidance corrections or abort commands. This can lead to uncontrolled drift, reentry, or mission shutdown, with no way to intervene. III. Standing Offer for Collaboration I am ready to suggest an astrologically favorable alternative that satisfies all range, orbit, and payload requirements. Our shared goal remains: a flawless NISAR mission that advances science for all. The decision rests with the launch team.
- Sealed on public record
- 2025-07-12
- Graded verdict
- PARTIAL
- Seal artifact
- https://youtu.be/9t5B2bzwOqg
- SHA-256
8062bbd9e5150e10e46360afb2b8fdc2e977f7421fe717f9f8500ac96ceb9dcc