Space Insurance — The Out-of-Model Signal for Launch-Day Risk
Built for space insurance underwriters, actuaries, and brokers: a sealed, externally-adjudicated launch-forecast record offered as a back-testable,…
Space Insurance — the out-of-model signal for launch-day risk (for underwriters, actuaries, and brokers)
Full disclosure, above everything: the input method is Vedic astrology — which the desk need not accept; the record is source-agnostic arithmetic, and every claim here recomputes without trusting the operator. This page is written for the market that prices launch risk — space insurance underwriters, actuaries, and brokers — and it sells a back-test, not a belief: a sealed, externally-adjudicated launch-forecast record built to be joined against a desk's own launch database and re-scored independently.
The market's own problem
Launch cover is priced from expected loss plus a volatility loading, with “technical heritage” as the credibility proxy, on sparse data — the industry's own actuarial vocabulary. A heritage rate card is static between flights: it is blind by construction to anything that varies launch-to-launch on identical hardware. Per industry market reports, the 2023 loss year ran to roughly $1.43B in claims against roughly $550M of premium, and the insured share of launches has fallen sharply — a capacity pool hungry for discrimination. Trade press has reported a recent launch-vehicle-caused insured total loss; the sealed record covers that campaign as public record (/advisory/LA-019 through /advisory/LA-022 — the last a catastrophic payload-loss class named about a day out). No insurer, broker, or claim party is named on this page; the day is readable, not preventable.
The signal
23 graded launch calls across five competing providers — SpaceX 8/8 · Blue Origin 5/5 · NASA 4 HIT + 1 NEAR · ISRO 3 HIT + 1 PARTIAL · ULA 1/1 (n=1, shown not argued from) — each SHA-256-sealed and OpenTimestamps-anchored on public infrastructure BEFORE the event, and graded against NASA / FAA / provider statements where a primary source exists. Zero false all-clears; the NEAR and the PARTIAL kept at full weight (both severity overcalls — the safe-side error, self-punished on the ledger). The launch-only Brier is 0.036 — self-scored, small n, and a base-rate baseline ties the aggregate; the checkable claim is SPECIFICITY: the failure mechanism named in advance, 15 of 15 risk-flag calls realized inside the named class, zero bare scrub calls.
Falcon 9 — the cleanest isolation of the day variable (a page centerpiece)
Falcon 9 is the industry's benchmark of reliability — engineering that has removed the machine-side variable more completely than any rocket in history, and the cheapest launch cover in the market, with per-vehicle rates reported falling in trade coverage. Precisely for that reason it is this record's cleanest isolation test: six sealed Falcon 9 reads, six HITs, the reads varying day-to-day on the SAME hardware while reality followed the read each time — including the Ax-4 natural experiment, four different verdicts on the identical stack (same booster, same capsule, same crew) in fifteen days, varying AGAINST the engineering gradient (attempt 2 rated worse than attempt 1 despite the repairs) and grading 4/4. The anchor row: a LOX-leak/engine class sealed ~44 hours before the static fire found a LOX leak (/advisory/LA-007) — the leak was not public information at seal time. On the vehicle where the machine variable is nearly gone, whatever still moves outcomes is day-shaped — the elimination establishes the signal's granularity, not any doubt about the vehicle: even the safest book in the market carries day-structure a heritage rate card doesn't see.
Anomaly-based, not binary
Every row publishes the failure CLASS named at seal beside the realized anomaly (the mechanism ledger, machine-readable in the launchDeep block of /api/v1/corpus-insights.json): a LOX-leak class before the static fire found the leak; hidden reflown-booster degradation before the provider confirmed a full engine replacement (/advisory/LA-020); a catastrophic payload-loss class about a day before the payload was lost (/advisory/LA-022). The industry's own actuarial literature names its desired direction of travel — anomaly-based instead of binary, environmental tracking replacing historical averages, credibility by component behaviour rather than calendar time. This record is already that shape, arriving from outside the model.
What a desk can do with it — the back-test path
The question is not belief — it is whether an out-of-model signal discriminates. That is checkable arithmetic: (1) the per-launch CSV at /dataset/jyotint-analyst-table.csv — one row per call: sealed date, sealed probability, verdict, Brier term, seal hash, per-row verify command — built to join against a launch database and re-score independently; (2) the zero-dependency verifier: node verify-jyotint.mjs --manifest seal-manifest.json --ots seal-manifest.json.ots (exits non-zero on any drift; the Bitcoin block time precedes each event date); (3) /launch-ledger for the verbatim adjudicator quotes; (4) /regrade to re-score the record under the desk's own probabilities, verdicts, and selection. Machine surfaces: /api/v1/graded.json, /api/v1/by-provider.json, /api/v1/corpus-insights.json, /seal-manifest.json (+ .ots), /grading-ledger.json, /dataset/jyotint-sealed-corpus/corpus.jsonl — all CC-BY, CORS-open.
Delay & scrub economics
Scrubs are not claims — but delayed launches break the alignment between written premium, exposure, and reserves, a reserving pain point the industry's own actuarial literature names. A day-level read is native to exactly that horizon: it speaks to schedule-slip exposure per window. And day-level probabilistic inputs are already normal launch culture — every count carries L-1 weather odds; this record is a read on the non-weather residual of the same day.
Engagement — quiet, 1:1
Request the back-test pack via [email protected]. On the operator side the standing posture is already insurance-denominated: a Launch Seat is posted at exactly half the mission's launch-insurance premium (a formula off the buyer's own number, never a sticker), with a clean make-good — a covered call graded MISS earns the next sealed advisory free (see /services). The ceiling, stated plainly: an augmenting input for a named decision-maker — never a go/no-go, never a review-board artifact, never a rate recommendation; nothing on this page is insurance, actuarial, or investment advice; the aggregate score is self-scored and a base-rate baseline ties it — the specificity axis is the independently checkable part.
The live ops floor · launch lens
The page embeds the record's live track-record map scoped to the launch desk — every sealed launch call pinned on the globe it happened over, verdicts adjudicated, replay and lenses driveable, seals verifiable in-map. Not a screenshot: the same live instrument Mission Control runs.
The Underwriting Seat — flagship, Seat №1
Sealed day-reads on the launch book a desk writes — priced in points on the line, graded like the public record: 5% (5 points) of the desk's net line premium per mission read, fixed at commissioning off the broker's indication and owed whether or not the desk binds; floor $50,000; $500,000/yr retainer that read fees credit against; billed on the market's own premium clock (5% at commissioning, 95% at L-30) with re-seals free as T-0 slips; fee-at-risk via a 20% holdback per read earned on the graded outcome — a clean MISS voids it and the next read is free (season variant $1.8M/yr · 24 missions · 25% rebate trigger); per-read seal election — public seal on the anchored record or hash-only private seal, and private reads never enter the public score. Governed by TERMS_02INS; the desk remains the underwriter of record; never a rate, bind, decline, or reserving recommendation.
Thirteen on-page instruments, every number from the published data files
Detection matrix (15/15 risk-flags realized in-class · 5/5 GO reads clean · 0 false all-clears · the two severity overcalls marked and kept) · lead-time distribution across the 23 calls · calibration profile (Spiegelhalter Z −0.48, Cox slope 0.96, bias-in-the-large −0.018 — whole record, n=92, /api/v1/measurement-profile.json) · launch-only Brier 0.036 beside the whole-record Murphy decomposition (uncertainty 0.1018 − resolution 0.0204 + reliability 0.0143 = 0.0958; no launch-scoped decomposition is published, so none is drawn) · the honest-tie figure (the record's own limitations file concedes a base-rate baseline ties the aggregate; the divergence axis is information per call — median 6.8 bits, launch median 19.9) · Ax-4 divergence chart · dose-response curve with gradient-breakers marked · anti-con curve (~1 → ~12 falsifiable elements per call while accuracy held) · acknowledgment-gap bars (sealed 4 days before NASA's Artemis-II confirmation, 2 days before Blue Origin's engine-swap confirmation) · confidence-ladder map (the sealed phrases' frozen probabilities, /grading-ledger.json) · premium-clock timeline · CSV join-schema · an in-browser verifier that recomputes a seal without anything leaving the tab.