Sealed, public, timestamped forecasts that landed — kept deliberately OFF the graded Brier, with the reason in the open. The SpaceX/Musk June-2025 window,…
These are sealed, public, timestamped forecasts that landed — and that we deliberately keep OFF the graded Brier corpus, with the reason stated in the open. Scoring them would move the Brier in our favour; almost any other forecaster would bank them without a second thought. We decline the points on purpose: the timestamp is the evidence, and refusing to cash it is the integrity. This page is also the answer to the charge that the exclusion list hides anything — the strongest excluded call is surfaced here, in full, under its own URL.
Sealed publicly on 19 March 2025: keep an eye on June 2025, especially between June 8 and 10, for impending misfortunes with SpaceX — explicitly distinct from Tesla. The headline cluster broke June 5–7 2025, days ahead of the named window: the Trump–Musk alliance ruptured in public, President Trump floated cancelling SpaceX's federal contracts, Musk posted then deleted that SpaceX would begin decommissioning its Dragon spacecraft immediately, and SpaceX's valuation was reported as likely cut roughly in half. On 19 March, Musk and the President were still close allies — the call ran against all available information, with a field of zero other forecasters. This is where the Barnum charge breaks: a named three-day window, fixed eleven weeks out, on one named company, in a stated adverse direction, is fully falsifiable. We still do not Brier-score it — no probability was committed at seal time, and the word "misfortunes" carries latitude we will not import into a mechanical ledger. It demonstrates the platform's core doctrine: it was never the vehicle, the genius, or the budget — it was the day. Interplanetary Weather; Time Is the Address. Offered as evidence, not a dunk — vendor, not adversary.