Brazil 2022 Election — Sealed Forecast
Brazil 2022 — right dynamics, wrong winner: a kept NEAR
The sealed presidential-runoff read (IA-BR22-001) named the round-1 leader (Lula), the dead-heat runoff, and Bolsonaro's post-election flight — but called Bolsonaro to win the runoff. Graded NEAR and kept on the ledger: 7 of 7 specificity vectors named in advance, operative claim wrong. This page exists because the misses and nears are the credibility of the hits.