2024 was the biggest election year in history. JYOTINT sealed dated calls on three of them: the US presidential race state by state, India's Lok Sabha seat ceiling, and Maharashtra. Two landed. One missed — and the miss is built as a flagship, not buried.
2024 was the largest election year in recorded history, and elections are an unusually honest test for a forecaster: the outcome is binary or near-binary, dated to a counting day, and reported independently by every outlet on earth. There is nowhere to hide. JYOTINT sealed dated, falsifiable calls on three 2024 contests. Two landed. One missed. This is all three — including the one that went wrong — because a scorecard that shows only the wins isn't a scorecard, it's an advertisement.
The US presidential race, sealed 19 August 2024 — 79 days before the vote. The discipline here was to refuse the easy binary. Anyone can guess a winner; this advisory sealed the outright winner *and* a state-by-state map, which is a far harder conjunction to get right and a far easier one to be caught wrong on. It was graded HIT against the result. The theater is at [/intel/us-2024](/intel/us-2024); the advisory and its seal are at [/intel/advisory/IA-US24-001](/intel/advisory/IA-US24-001).
India's Lok Sabha election, sealed 10 August 2023 — 299 days out, and against the entire room. The BJP's own slogan was 'Abki Baar 400 Paar' — past 400 — and the consensus expected a supermajority. The sealed call was the unfashionable one: the government holds, but the BJP does not clear 272 seats on its own. Ten months later, on the night of 1 June 2024, every major exit poll called a landslide; the seal didn't move. On 4 June the BJP landed at 240. The full anatomy, including holding the line through exit-poll night, is [here](/essays/anatomy-of-a-sealed-call-india-seat-ceiling); theater at [/intel/in-2024](/intel/in-2024).