On 2 April 2025 — “Liberation Day,” as the tariff crash began — I sealed a public call that there would be no recession and that markets would boom within months, against a Wall Street consensus that had just flipped to 60–65% recession odds. By year-end the S&P was up ~17%. Here's the anatomy.
On 2 April 2025 — 'Liberation Day,' as the tariff crash was getting underway — I sealed a public call that there would be no recession and that the U.S. economy and markets would boom within months. I made it at the moment of maximum fear, against a Wall Street consensus that had just flipped to 60–65% recession odds. By the end of the year the S&P 500 was up about 17%. This is the anatomy of that call, including where a skeptic can still push on it.
The setup matters, because timing is most of the story. In early April 2025, sweeping new tariffs sent markets into free fall and the 1930 Smoot-Hawley / Great-Depression analogy was suddenly everywhere. JPMorgan became the first major bank to call a recession, at 60%; Goldman put it at 65%. The consensus had turned dark, fast. I quote-tweeted that turning consensus and sealed the opposite — on the public record, at the bottom, not after the recovery made it safe.
The exact claim: no Great Depression, no recession — the economy and markets would boom in a few months. Specific, dated, and falsifiable, sealed as the S&P was bottoming (its low printed 8 April). That timing is the entire point. A bullish call is cheap in June once the bounce is obvious; on Liberation Day, with every bank turning bearish, it is expensive — which is exactly when a forecast carries information.