{
  "$schema": "https://jyotishintelligence.com/schemas/grading-ledger-v1.json",
  "version": 1,
  "generatedAt": "2026-07-19T22:54:17.108Z",
  "origin": "https://jyotishintelligence.com",
  "algorithm": "sha256",
  "ledgerHashInput": "sha256(JSON.stringify(entries)) — canonical JSON of the id-sorted entries array",
  "gradingRule": "outcomeValue: HIT=1 · NEAR=0.5 · PARTIAL=0.5 · MISS=0. brierTerm = (probAtSeal − outcomeValue)^2. brier = mean(brierTerm) over all entries. probAtSeal is read from each advisory's sealed confidence wording mapped onto the IPCC AR6 band ladder, applied identically to hits and misses; outcome is graded after the event against the claim sealed in seal-manifest.json.",
  "sealManifest": {
    "file": "https://jyotishintelligence.com/seal-manifest.json",
    "note": "Claim-anteriority proof — separate artifact, separate OTS anchor (block (pending)), never moved by a re-grade."
  },
  "count": 93,
  "brier": 0.0949,
  "brierFromLedger": 0.0949,
  "ledgerHash": "6fc405b00e12c60190e12645402dbc5b11d2a5177a52e2d81fbb05acf911ec37",
  "entries": [
    {
      "id": "IA-BR22-001",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "NEAR",
      "outcomeValue": 0.5,
      "brierTerm": 0.0784
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-CN-2022",
      "probAtSeal": 0.95,
      "ipccBand": "Extremely likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0025
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-IN24-001",
      "probAtSeal": 0.9,
      "ipccBand": "Very likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.01
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-IN24-002",
      "probAtSeal": 0.9,
      "ipccBand": "Very likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.01
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-IN24-003",
      "probAtSeal": 0.9,
      "ipccBand": "Very likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.01
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-IN24-004",
      "probAtSeal": 0.9,
      "ipccBand": "Very likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.01
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-IN24-005",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0484
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-IN24-006",
      "probAtSeal": 0.6,
      "ipccBand": "More likely than not",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.16
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-IN24-007",
      "probAtSeal": 0.6,
      "ipccBand": "More likely than not",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.16
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-IN24-008",
      "probAtSeal": 0.6,
      "ipccBand": "More likely than not",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.16
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-IN24-009",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "MISS",
      "outcomeValue": 0,
      "brierTerm": 0.6084
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-IN24-NS01",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0484
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-IN24-NS02",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0484
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-IN24-NS03",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0484
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-IN24-NS04",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0484
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-IN24-NS05",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "NEAR",
      "outcomeValue": 0.5,
      "brierTerm": 0.0784
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-IN24-NS06",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0484
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-IN24-NS07",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "NEAR",
      "outcomeValue": 0.5,
      "brierTerm": 0.0784
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-IN24-NS08",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0484
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-IN24-NS09",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "MISS",
      "outcomeValue": 0,
      "brierTerm": 0.6084
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-IN24-NS10",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0484
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-IN24-NS11",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0484
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-INGEO-001",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0484
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-MH24-001",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "MISS",
      "outcomeValue": 0,
      "brierTerm": 0.6084
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-MKT-001",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "NEAR",
      "outcomeValue": 0.5,
      "brierTerm": 0.0784
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-MKT-002",
      "probAtSeal": 0.95,
      "ipccBand": "Extremely likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0025
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-RU-001",
      "probAtSeal": 0.9,
      "ipccBand": "Very likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.01
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-RU-002",
      "probAtSeal": 0.95,
      "ipccBand": "Extremely likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0025
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-RU-003",
      "probAtSeal": 0.95,
      "ipccBand": "Extremely likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0025
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-RU-004",
      "probAtSeal": 0.9,
      "ipccBand": "Very likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.01
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-RU-005",
      "probAtSeal": 0.95,
      "ipccBand": "Extremely likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0025
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-RU-006",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0484
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-RU-007",
      "probAtSeal": 0.95,
      "ipccBand": "Extremely likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0025
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-RU-008",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0484
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-RU-009",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0484
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-RU-010",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0484
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-RU-011",
      "probAtSeal": 0.9,
      "ipccBand": "Very likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.01
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-RU-012",
      "probAtSeal": 0.9,
      "ipccBand": "Very likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.01
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-RU-013",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0484
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-RU-014",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "PARTIAL",
      "outcomeValue": 0.5,
      "brierTerm": 0.0784
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-RU-015",
      "probAtSeal": 0.95,
      "ipccBand": "Extremely likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0025
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-RU-016",
      "probAtSeal": 0.95,
      "ipccBand": "Extremely likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0025
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-RU-017",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0484
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-RU-018",
      "probAtSeal": 0.9,
      "ipccBand": "Very likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.01
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-RU-019",
      "probAtSeal": 0.9,
      "ipccBand": "Very likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.01
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-RU-020",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "PARTIAL",
      "outcomeValue": 0.5,
      "brierTerm": 0.0784
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-RU-021",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0484
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-RU-022",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "MISS",
      "outcomeValue": 0,
      "brierTerm": 0.6084
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-RU-023",
      "probAtSeal": 0.9,
      "ipccBand": "Very likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.01
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-RU-024",
      "probAtSeal": 0.9,
      "ipccBand": "Very likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.01
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-RU-026",
      "probAtSeal": 0.9,
      "ipccBand": "Very likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "NEAR",
      "outcomeValue": 0.5,
      "brierTerm": 0.16
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-RU-027",
      "probAtSeal": 0.9,
      "ipccBand": "Very likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.01
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-RU-028",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "MISS",
      "outcomeValue": 0,
      "brierTerm": 0.6084
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-RU-029",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0484
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-RU-030",
      "probAtSeal": 0.6,
      "ipccBand": "More likely than not",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "PARTIAL",
      "outcomeValue": 0.5,
      "brierTerm": 0.01
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-RU-031",
      "probAtSeal": 0.9,
      "ipccBand": "Very likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.01
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-RU-032",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "MISS",
      "outcomeValue": 0,
      "brierTerm": 0.6084
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-UK22-001",
      "probAtSeal": 0.9,
      "ipccBand": "Very likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.01
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-US22-001",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0484
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-US24-001",
      "probAtSeal": 0.9,
      "ipccBand": "Very likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.01
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-US24-002",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0484
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-US24-003",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "MISS",
      "outcomeValue": 0,
      "brierTerm": 0.6084
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-US24-004",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0484
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-US24-005",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "MISS",
      "outcomeValue": 0,
      "brierTerm": 0.6084
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-US24-006",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0484
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-US24-007",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "MISS",
      "outcomeValue": 0,
      "brierTerm": 0.6084
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-US24-008",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0484
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-US24-009",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0484
    },
    {
      "id": "IA-US24-010",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0484
    },
    {
      "id": "LA-000",
      "probAtSeal": 0.9,
      "ipccBand": "Very likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.01
    },
    {
      "id": "LA-001",
      "probAtSeal": 0.85,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0225
    },
    {
      "id": "LA-002",
      "probAtSeal": 0.8,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.04
    },
    {
      "id": "LA-003",
      "probAtSeal": 0.85,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0225
    },
    {
      "id": "LA-004",
      "probAtSeal": 0.82,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0324
    },
    {
      "id": "LA-005",
      "probAtSeal": 0.88,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0144
    },
    {
      "id": "LA-006",
      "probAtSeal": 0.8,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.04
    },
    {
      "id": "LA-007",
      "probAtSeal": 0.85,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0225
    },
    {
      "id": "LA-008",
      "probAtSeal": 0.99,
      "ipccBand": "Virtually certain",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0001
    },
    {
      "id": "LA-009",
      "probAtSeal": 0.8,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.04
    },
    {
      "id": "LA-010",
      "probAtSeal": 0.99,
      "ipccBand": "Virtually certain",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0001
    },
    {
      "id": "LA-011",
      "probAtSeal": 0.99,
      "ipccBand": "Virtually certain",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0001
    },
    {
      "id": "LA-012",
      "probAtSeal": 0.86,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "PARTIAL",
      "outcomeValue": 0.5,
      "brierTerm": 0.1296
    },
    {
      "id": "LA-013",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0484
    },
    {
      "id": "LA-014",
      "probAtSeal": 0.9,
      "ipccBand": "Very likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.01
    },
    {
      "id": "LA-015",
      "probAtSeal": 0.9,
      "ipccBand": "Very likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.01
    },
    {
      "id": "LA-016",
      "probAtSeal": 0.9,
      "ipccBand": "Very likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.01
    },
    {
      "id": "LA-017",
      "probAtSeal": 0.72,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0784
    },
    {
      "id": "LA-018",
      "probAtSeal": 0.925,
      "ipccBand": "Very likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "NEAR",
      "outcomeValue": 0.5,
      "brierTerm": 0.180625
    },
    {
      "id": "LA-019",
      "probAtSeal": 0.78,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0484
    },
    {
      "id": "LA-020",
      "probAtSeal": 0.85,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0225
    },
    {
      "id": "LA-021",
      "probAtSeal": 0.85,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0225
    },
    {
      "id": "LA-022",
      "probAtSeal": 0.85,
      "ipccBand": "Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.0225
    },
    {
      "id": "LA-023",
      "probAtSeal": 0.9,
      "ipccBand": "Very Likely",
      "audited": true,
      "outcome": "HIT",
      "outcomeValue": 1,
      "brierTerm": 0.01
    }
  ]
}