# Forecasts deliberately kept out of the graded corpus

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## Forecasts deliberately kept out of the graded corpus

A set of public forecasts kept off the Brier-scored record on principle — ethics, unfalsifiability, discredited categories, responsibility, register. Includes the notable **ungraded** Elon Musk / SpaceX anticipation: a March 2025 reading flagged “misfortunes with SpaceX” around June 2025, and that June Donald Trump threatened SpaceX’s federal contracts while Elon Musk threatened to decommission the Dragon spacecraft. It is deliberately NOT counted as a hit — the predicted effect was undefined and a remedial-avoidance clause makes it unfalsifiable. Sources: [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/spacex-will-decommission-dragon-spacecraft-musk-says-feud-with-trump-escalates-2025-06-05/), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/06/07/trump-elon-musk-fight-behind-scenes/).

The page also carries signature sections owned in full: the 2020 US-election miss (conceded, un-scrubbed); a full sports scorecard (tennis, NFL, NBA, NCAA — 7 hits and 4 misses, with the reason for each miss, kept off-grade as a lower-information entertainment register made to raise visibility); and — as a mark of honor — a reading on the transition and succession of His Holiness the Dalai Lama. The latter is a bold, dated, falsifiable forecast (four windows across 2026–2027) that nonetheless stays excluded on ETHICS, not falsifiability: we do not render the transition of a named, living, revered person into a graded score. It is offered with reverence; around the first window (early Feb 2026) His Holiness was the subject of a public controversy tied to the Epstein files which he formally denied — logged as documented context only, no causal link, no claim of confirmation.