{ "name": "JYOTINT glossary — the terms of art, defined", "description": "Every term of art used across the record (protocol/seal, the 1-in-N derivation, accuracy grading, domain vocabulary), with stable anchors that line up with the /glossary page fragments. Mirrors src/app/data/glossary.ts 1:1.", "generated_at": "2026-06-30T01:45:55.186Z", "sections": [ { "id": "protocol", "label": "Protocol & Seal" }, { "id": "formula", "label": "1-in-N Derivation" }, { "id": "grading", "label": "Accuracy Grading" }, { "id": "domain", "label": "Domain Vocabulary" } ], "count": 32, "definitions": "https://jyotishintelligence.com/math", "glossary_page": "https://jyotishintelligence.com/glossary", "terms": [ { "anchor": "seal", "term": "Seal", "short": null, "section": "protocol", "definition": "The act of publishing an advisory to a public host (YouTube and/or X) before the prediction window opens, with the SHA-256 hash of the advisory document published in the same post. The seal is non-custodial — there is no JYOTINT-controlled database that could be silently rewritten. The public timestamp is the timestamp.", "example": "An advisory uploaded to YouTube at 14:02 UTC with the SHA-256 hash in the description is sealed at 14:02 UTC." }, { "anchor": "sha-256-hash", "term": "SHA-256 Hash", "short": "Cryptographic fingerprint", "section": "protocol", "definition": "A 256-bit cryptographic digest of the advisory PDF, computed at upload time and published alongside the seal. Any post-hoc edit to the document changes the hash, making after-the-fact tampering detectable by any reader who recomputes the digest.", "example": null }, { "anchor": "t-0", "term": "T-0", "short": "Window open", "section": "protocol", "definition": "The moment the prediction window opens. Every advisory is sealed before T-0 — usually by days or weeks, occasionally by months. Lead time is measured from seal time to materialization time, not from T-0.", "example": null }, { "anchor": "lead-time", "term": "Lead Time", "short": null, "section": "protocol", "definition": "Calendar days from advisory upload to public-record materialization of the called event. Both anchors are external — neither is under JYOTINT's control. The corpus currently averages in the high-200-day range.", "example": "An advisory uploaded 2023-09-04 calling an event materialized 2024-03-22 has a lead time of 200 days." }, { "anchor": "materialization", "term": "Materialization", "short": null, "section": "protocol", "definition": "The earliest public-record event that satisfies the advisory's rubric. Anchored to named, datable reporting (wire services, official statements, primary documents) — not internal recollection or unsourced claims.", "example": null }, { "anchor": "falsifiability", "term": "Falsifiability", "short": null, "section": "protocol", "definition": "The property of a forecast that it can be definitively contradicted by public evidence. JYOTINT advisories are falsifiable by construction: actor, timing, target, and effect are all stated unconditionally, and the call fails on public record if any single dimension fails on public record.", "example": null }, { "anchor": "conjunction", "term": "Conjunction", "short": null, "section": "protocol", "definition": "The four-dimension commitment — actor × timing × target × effect — graded as a single inseparable unit. An advisory cannot pass on three dimensions and call itself a HIT; the rubric grades against the AND, not the OR.", "example": null }, { "anchor": "n", "term": "N (1-in-N)", "short": "Aggregate improbability", "section": "formula", "definition": "The aggregate base-rate improbability of an advisory, derived strictly from a public formula: outcome-space partition × cascade exponent × multiplier ladder. A 1-in-1,000 advisory has, by the published derivation, a 0.1% prior probability of materializing absent the call.", "example": null }, { "anchor": "outcome-space-partition", "term": "Outcome-Space Partition", "short": null, "section": "formula", "definition": "The full set of possible outcomes for each rubric dimension, with a prior weight on each, declared before the call. Weights sum to 1.00. The floor probability for a dimension is the weight on the bin the advisory called. Anyone can challenge the partition; nobody can challenge that 1/weight is the right floor once the partition is fixed.", "example": null }, { "anchor": "cascade-exponent", "term": "Cascade Exponent", "short": "0.75", "section": "formula", "definition": "The dampening exponent applied to descendant cascade dimensions to net out correlation. Used when downstream dimensions are not statistically independent of the root call — without the exponent, multiplying floor probabilities would over-count the rarity.", "example": null }, { "anchor": "pcp", "term": "PCP", "short": "Public-Consensus Penalty · cap 10×", "section": "formula", "definition": "Multiplier applied when the call runs against published expert consensus at seal time — and zero named public callers are on record taking the same position. Capped at 10×.", "example": null }, { "anchor": "cp", "term": "CP", "short": "Conjunction Premium · cap 2.5×", "section": "formula", "definition": "Multiplier rewarding commitment to all four rubric dimensions simultaneously, rather than hedging on any one. Capped at 2.5×.", "example": null }, { "anchor": "dh", "term": "DH", "short": "Domain Hardness", "section": "formula", "definition": "Multiplier for inherent forecast difficulty in the advisory's domain. Rocketry sits at 3.0× and geopolitics at 2.5×, reflecting published forecast-skill literature.", "example": null }, { "anchor": "lt", "term": "LT", "short": "Lead-Time Premium · cap 3.0×", "section": "formula", "definition": "Multiplier scaling with lead time, calibrated to NWS / Tetlock horizon-decay curves. Saturates at 3.0× beyond 21 days of lead.", "example": null }, { "anchor": "aw", "term": "AW", "short": "Analyst-Window Premium · cap 2.0×", "section": "formula", "definition": "Multiplier rewarding analytic response delivered within six hours of an information scrub — the post-event compression axis. Saturates at 2.0×.", "example": null }, { "anchor": "hit", "term": "HIT", "short": null, "section": "grading", "definition": "All four rubric dimensions (actor, timing, target, effect) materialize within the called window with named, datable public reporting. The rubric must be the one fixed at seal time — no retroactive adjustment.", "example": null }, { "anchor": "near", "term": "NEAR", "short": null, "section": "grading", "definition": "Three of four rubric dimensions materialize cleanly, with the fourth partially satisfied or satisfied outside the strict window. Graded with the rubric fixed at seal time, not loosened after the fact.", "example": null }, { "anchor": "partial", "term": "PARTIAL", "short": null, "section": "grading", "definition": "Two of four rubric dimensions materialize, or one with strong public-record convergence on the directional thesis. Honest acknowledgment that the call captured something real but did not earn a HIT.", "example": null }, { "anchor": "miss", "term": "MISS", "short": null, "section": "grading", "definition": "The advisory fails its own rubric on public record. Misses are published with the same prominence as hits — the track record is intentionally unredacted.", "example": null }, { "anchor": "rubric", "term": "Rubric", "short": null, "section": "grading", "definition": "The specific four-dimension grading criteria fixed at seal time. The rubric is part of the sealed document and cannot be edited retroactively. Grades are attached to source-cited exhibits, not internal recollection.", "example": null }, { "anchor": "exhibit", "term": "Exhibit", "short": null, "section": "grading", "definition": "A named, datable piece of public-record evidence used to grade an advisory after the window closes. Wire-service reports, official statements, primary documents. Internal claims and unsourced assertions are not exhibits.", "example": null }, { "anchor": "brier-score", "term": "Brier Score", "short": "Mean squared error of probability vs. outcome", "section": "grading", "definition": "The mean of (probability − outcome)² across closed advisories, where outcome is 1 for HIT, 0 for MISS, and 0.5 for NEAR/PARTIAL. Bounded [0, 1]; lower is better. JYOTINT publishes a live Brier on Mission Control and at /calibration.json. Reference benchmarks: 0.25 (always 50/50), 0.20 (uniform prior over partition), 0.149 (Tetlock Good Judgment Project superforecaster published mean).", "example": "A forecaster who calls every advisory 'Likely' (0.78) and lands 21 HITs out of 22 closed scores a Brier of roughly 0.05 — well under the GJP superforecaster line." }, { "anchor": "log-loss", "term": "Log Loss", "short": "Entropy-based scoring rule", "section": "grading", "definition": "−mean( o·ln(p) + (1−o)·ln(1−p) ) across closed advisories, with probabilities clamped to [ε, 1−ε] to keep the metric finite on rare overconfident misses. Unlike Brier, log loss is unbounded above — it punishes overconfident wrongs disproportionately. Reading log loss alongside Brier is the standard practice in calibrated forecasting.", "example": null }, { "anchor": "brier-skill-score", "term": "Brier Skill Score (BSS)", "short": "Skill above the base rate", "section": "grading", "definition": "How much better the forecaster's Brier is than a no-skill \"climatology\" baseline that always predicts each call's own pre-registered base-rate floor: BSS = 1 − (Brier_forecaster ÷ Brier_baseline). 0 = no better than the base rate; 1 = perfect; negative = worse than guessing the base rate. The JYOTINT corpus runs about +0.89 against that conservative floor — recomputable from /skill.json. It answers what a low Brier alone cannot: not just \"were you accurate?\" but \"were you accurate on calls that were genuinely hard?\"", "example": "A +0.89 BSS means the record closes most of the gap from \"no better than each call's base rate\" to a perfect score — i.e. it repeatedly calls improbable things that then happen." }, { "anchor": "sita", "term": "SITA", "short": "Four-axis decision-value of a sealed call", "section": "grading", "definition": "SITA — the decision-value of a sealed call on four axes: Specificity (the named 5W1H vectors — computed), Improbability (the published 1-in-N — computed), impacT (consequence tier — rubric-judged), and Actionability (recommendation named, lead time to act, crisp go/no-go, outcome still changeable — rubric-judged). Composite = a transparent weighted mean (rigor axes 40% / value axes 60%) on 0–100 with a corpus percentile; recomputable from published inputs. Shown on every advisory and as a map filter. Its evidential peer is Information Yield (IY).", "example": null }, { "anchor": "information-yield", "term": "Information Yield (IY)", "short": "Bits of against-consensus information — the evidential peer to SITA", "section": "grading", "definition": "Information Yield (IY) — the evidential weight of a sealed call, measured in BITS of surprise-if-true: bits = log₂(1-in-N), capped at the 1-in-a-million ceiling (not banked beyond). A consensus call or a base-rate forecaster scores 0 bits by construction. Bits EARNED = bits × verdict (HIT 1 · NEAR/PARTIAL 0.5 · MISS 0). Across the graded corpus the median call carries ~9 bits (≈1-in-480) and the record earned ~94% of the available information. Purely computed from the published 1-in-N + the public verdict — no rubric judgment. Where SITA asks how much a DESK should care (decision-value), IY asks how much a SKEPTIC'S BELIEF should move (evidential weight). The bits are only as good as the per-call priors (self-assigned, same caveat as the 1-in-N); IY measures evidence-the-method-beats-chance, never calibration skill. Sits beside SITA on every advisory.", "example": null }, { "anchor": "grading-ledger", "term": "Grading Ledger", "short": "The frozen, Bitcoin-anchored grades", "section": "grading", "definition": "A separate artifact (grading-ledger.json) that freezes every closed call's assigned probability, graded outcome, and per-call Brier term, hashed and anchored on its own OpenTimestamps Bitcoin proof — independent of the claim-anteriority seal manifest. The published Brier is the mean of those frozen terms, so anyone can recompute it from anchored data and a later re-grade can't be made silently.", "example": null }, { "anchor": "ipcc-confidence-vocabulary", "term": "IPCC AR6 Confidence Vocabulary", "short": "Standardised confidence language", "section": "grading", "definition": "The probability-to-language mapping adopted verbatim from the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. JYOTINT advisories use these exact phrases so a sealed claim like 'very likely' maps unambiguously to ≥0.90 without analyst reinterpretation. Bands: Virtually certain (>0.99), Extremely likely (>0.95), Very likely (>0.90), Likely (>0.66), More likely than not (>0.50), About as likely as not (0.33–0.66), Unlikely (<0.33), Very unlikely (<0.10), Extremely unlikely (<0.05), Exceptionally unlikely (<0.01).", "example": null }, { "anchor": "advisory", "term": "Advisory", "short": null, "section": "domain", "definition": "A single sealed forecast. JYOTINT publishes two product lines: Launch Advisories (LA-NNN, space domain) and Intel Advisories (IA-XX-NNN, geopolitics, with XX as a theater code such as RU for Russia–Ukraine, US24 for US 2024, or IN24 for India Lok Sabha 2024).", "example": null }, { "anchor": "theater", "term": "Theater", "short": null, "section": "domain", "definition": "A multi-year geopolitical campaign in which JYOTINT issues a series of sealed advisories sharing actors, geography, and analytic frame. Current public theaters: RU (Russia–Ukraine), US24 (United States 2024), and IN24 (India Lok Sabha 2024).", "example": null }, { "anchor": "smoking-gun", "term": "Smoking Gun", "short": null, "section": "domain", "definition": "The single sentence — drawn from the advisory itself — that best demonstrates the prediction landed against subsequent public record. Used in Mission Control highlight cards as the sealed-quote anchor.", "example": null }, { "anchor": "cover-card", "term": "Cover Card", "short": null, "section": "domain", "definition": "The condensed highlight tile shown on the Mission Control deck, carrying the advisory ID, title, accuracy grade, and smoking-gun sentence.", "example": null } ] }